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You Can't Even 2016 - MPC Election Desk HeadquartersThe padded cell where we predict the next president based on tea leaves, Matt Forney forehead fold readings, etc.
Posted 31 October 2016 - 01:26 PM
Taleb is thinking like a trader when modeling uncertainty. A trader is trying to price a binary option (Trump wins or Hillary wins) on election day. We know what the historical performance of this "stock" is poll-wise (assume the polls are correct). In order to say something intelligent about something which is from our point of view random/stochastic, derivatives traders assume that the movement of the stock/polls is a random walk (e.g. a simple random walk is one where you flip a coin and move up a point or down a point depending on the outcome. another e.g. take a random number in [-1,1] and take that step.).
Because of the properties of a random walk, the most important thing when predicting the stock movement in the future is to understand its volatility (how much the stock moves up and down), because a priori we don't know whether this volatility will move the stock up or down in the future.
538's poll estimate is so volatile, basic stochastic calculus shows that when you incorporate future uncertainty all you can really say is that the outcome is basically a coin flip.
Edited by Walter, 31 October 2016 - 01:29 PM.
Posted 31 October 2016 - 03:08 PM
Posted 31 October 2016 - 03:45 PM
Edited by (((SINISTER NAZI ECHO))), 31 October 2016 - 03:48 PM.
Posted 31 October 2016 - 04:00 PM
Relax, Sinister, play with the map....
I like this analysis, Pennsylvania is the widest road to a win, truly the Keystone state.
Edited by Major Hoople, 31 October 2016 - 04:04 PM.
Posted 31 October 2016 - 04:03 PM
He could win without PA. For example if he flips NH + NV or Michigan or Wisconsin. But if he flips MI or WI he's likely going to flip PA as well.
Posted 31 October 2016 - 04:32 PM
There is a third route that involves winning Nevada, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Maine's 2nd congressional district. That would give Trump exactly 270. There was a poll today showing Trump up by 2 points in New Hampshire (Trump has seen a yuge swing in independent support, New Hampshire's largest voting bloc, this week so this poll doesn't smell too funny). If Trump doesn't get Maine's CD2 going this route, it will be all tied up and thrown to the House, where I expect, despite GOP cuckery, the GOP will give it to Trump. If not justified on partisanship then it will be justified by the aura of stink surrounding Hillary's campaign and her FBI investigation.
Hopefully that doesn't happen. Faulk has PA listed as a true tossup because we really don't know what the hell is going on there and there is reason to believe things are looking good there since things are looking very good in Ohio and, as Michael Moore has pointed out, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and to a lesser extent Wisconsin are the "Brexit States".
We do know, as mentioned above, that Ohio and Pennsylvania witnessed nearly identical behavior in primary voting patterns, in that Republican primary turnout nearly doubled while Democrat turnout dropped by about a third. In Pennsylvania the spike was more pronounced and unlike Ohio, Trump won the primary in Pennsylvania in a landslide.
Posted 31 October 2016 - 04:45 PM
Unless the corrupt as f**k
Posted 31 October 2016 - 10:39 PM
I usually don't go out to eat but stopped at a small diner today.
There were 7 people there, including myself. The waitress asked me, "About 1 week left. Who do you think will win?"
I said, "Well... I hope it's Trump" and another waitress and another patron started talking about how much they like Trump and what a pile of crap Clinton is. We chatted about it for a bit. Very hopeful. These were working class whites who would probably vote Democrat under other circumstances.
Also, I know a "life long" female Democrat who told me that she is terrified of Hillary winning because of open borders, TPP, corruption, refugees, war mongering, etc. She is either going to not vote on Nov 8th or she will vote for Trump - she has not decided yet.
On the other end of the spectrum, I know lots of shitlibs who are voting for Hillary BECASUSE TRUMP IS SIX FEET TWO INCHES OF PURE WHITE HATE!!!
I think the pro-Trump people who talk about a Trump landslide do not understand the massive amount of shitlibs and loyal Democrats who will vote for Hillary due to either party loyalty, indentity politics, or fear of Trump being the next Mecha-Hitler 2.0 (as hyped up by the media). Also, there are a s**t
I think it's going to be a close race. I think Trump can realistically win but I think it's going to be close.
I have a good friend who works for the Democrats and he thinks it's going to be close. He's also voting for Trump.
Posted 01 November 2016 - 04:33 AM
This is how things shook out in 2012.
Posted 01 November 2016 - 09:15 AM
Well now it is +1 Trump.
Also here is the party identification breakdown:
Looking promising for Trump on that front.
Posted 01 November 2016 - 10:43 AM
GOP surge seemed to come from independents, while Dem surge came from "no opinion"
Posted 01 November 2016 - 10:48 AM
Posted 01 November 2016 - 11:32 AM
Barring some 11th hour catastrophe (knock on wood), Trump is, as I've stated before, currently looking good in all the Romney states, plus Ohio and Florida. If the same patterns we're seeing in Ohio carry over to Pennsylvania, I think Pennsylvania should, even if its by the hair on Trump's glorious chin, go for Trump. Michael Moore has placed doubt in the polls of these Rust Belt states and quite frankly so do I. The Axiom Battleground Counties tracking polls in PA last showed Trump killing it in Luzerne County and nearly tied in Northampton County. Those surveys were released on October 23rd and were taken during Trump's "pussygate" slump.
Since then we've seen the email scandal blow up again and that combined with the fact that PA doesn't have early voting (besides absentee voting, which in Michigan is actually benefiting Trump so far), and that we are seeing precipitous drops in early voting in key Democratic counties in Ohio along with a drop in Black voter turnout everywhere (but I repeat myself) makes me think we are in for a Brexit style upset in PA. It doesn't have to be much, but there are serious signs of the monster vote in other states on the East Coast. North Carolina is another good example, where GOP ballots are up and Unaffiliated ballots have skyrocketed which is just the sort of thing you'd expect to see if there are lots of infrequent voters coming to the polls to vote for Trump. We are also seeing increased White turnout and much decreased Black turnout in NC.
Barring that, there are still good signs coming from other swing states. The Axiom polls also point to Trump leading in Nevada, and the Conservative Treehouse has a plausible theory that Trump is actually leading by about 2 points in early voting in Nevada as well. I don't put quite that much stock in it, but it's worth considering. There is also the poll out showing Trump leading in New Hampshire and there is a new Emerson poll out showing Trump only down by 4 in Virginia. We also have the fact Trump's campaign is saying things are all but tied up in the New Mexico and Michigan internal polling (if you choose to believe that). If we see the same "monster vote" in these states that we are seeing signs of elsewhere, this would be very good news since if Clinton loses Virginia, she's in very deep s**t
The momentum and the wild cards are all on Trump's side as we head into next Tuesday. The LA Times poll is heading back up and giving Trump a good lead once again. The ABC-WaPo poll has Trump with the narrow lead. The PPD poll shows Trump leading as well. The ridiculous polls showing Clinton winning by 7+ points are in the past as pollsters have reputations to maintain. The same people that have been predicting a Trump win since last July also called this poll tightening and it is indeed happening.
I don't want to get everyone's hopes up too much, but in my opinion, come November 9th, we'll be able to call Donald J. Trump the 45th president of the United States of America.
Posted 01 November 2016 - 12:02 PM
Posted 01 November 2016 - 12:20 PM
Was Romney seriously trying to win? The Ali/Liston fight was more believable.