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#1 Hyperion

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Posted 30 October 2016 - 09:04 PM

I've been filling (polluting) the Trump thread with random tidbits of early voting statistics, since early votes actually matter, unlike (((polls))). As most of you know, there have been two groups of polls so far this election, those that show Trump losing by six gorillion points and those that show the race as a statistical tie. Unsurprisingly, early voting trends suggest a tight race rather than one where the Hildebeast comfortably waddles into the Oval Office (and thus becomes the first woman to sit at the President's desk rather than under it).

Ryan Faulk, a statistics fiend who used to post regularly at The Right Stuff, has his own goldmine of a blog where he analyses all sorts of data points and stuff. A speadsheet monkey after my own heart. His analysis of early voting numbers are hard-headed and realistic. I like his analysis because it is thorough, and doesn't involve #TRUMPSLIDE Trump-winning-New-York bullshit, nor does it entertain smarmy liberal pundit Hillary-winning-Texas nonsense, either. I'll just put it here in full:


Early Voting Points to a Tight Election

The election has already begun, voting has started, and guess what: polls which predicted a Hillary landslide are dead wrong. I can say one thing for certain: Hillary will not win in a landslide. And I think there’s a 50% chance she won’t even win. The early voting results paints a mixed, competitive picture of both good news and bad news.

First, the good news. Trump is up in Iowa without any adjustments and Republicans are doing better in early voting than they were in 2012 in Iowa. Georgia is not a battleground state, with Trump up 3 in the RCP average without any adjustments. Maine CD2 is probably going to go to Trump, but it’s unlikely to matter.

The bad news is out west. Trump is matching Romney’s results in Nevada, and Colorado is simply a lost cause. Trump will win Arizona, Romney won it by 9.03%, and Trump is doing well enough in early voting that he’s on track to win it, but he’s doing worse than Romney. Also, Virginia is probably not really a battleground state anymore. It’s gone.

But the really potential good news – and the way Trump can win the election, is a turnout boom in Ohio, Pennsylvania and possibly Michigan. This is where the data is exciting and is going to decide the election. So lets start with that.

Ohio

Ohio doesn’t release data on party registration for early voting, but they do release data by county, and the early voting results suggests a sea change for 2016.

At this point in 2012, counties that voted for Obama had requested 899,204 (63.83%) ballots, whereas now they have only requested 859,565 (60.32%) ballots. A decline of 39,639.

At this point in 2012, counties that voted for Romney had requested 509,479 (36.17%) ballots, whereas now they have requested 565,351 (39.68%) ballots. An increase of 55,872.

This constitutes a 7.02% swing in the proportion of ballot requests from Democrat counties to Republican counties. That alone would be massive – however, remember that the real partisan effect is muffled because these aren’t party numbers.

Cuyahoga county (where Cleveland is) for example went 68.8% for Obama, which means 31.2% went to Romney. Ballot requests are down 17% in Cuyahoga, even with the Republicans in Cuyahoga who, presumably, are requesting ballots MORE than they were in 2012. And in Republican counties, the rise in ballot requests is also presumably dampened by the Democrats in those counties who are requesting fewer ballots.

I.e. if the counties were all either 100% Democrat or 100% Republican, then we would expect the R-D absentee ballot request gap to narrow 7%.

But if the counties are, on a weighted average, 66.6% to 33.3% in favor of one party (either Democrat or Republican), then we would expect that the Republican-Democrat gap thus far in early voting is actually 21%.

But here’s another problem: Democrats turning out for Trump. Because it’s clear that in Ohio Trump is generating much more enthusiasm, given the rise in ballot requests in Republican counties. And so those Democrats who support Trump are probably more likely to turn out than Republicans who are anti-Trump, because Hillary generates no enthusiasm for a GOP crossover. Though this is just speculation.

Why am I so interested in Ohio? Because right next to Ohio are Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Pennsylvania doesn’t have early voting.

Obama won Ohio by 2.98% in 2012.  Obama won Pennsylvania by 5.38% in 2012. Early voting in Ohio is forcing me into a scary prediction of a 4-11 point Trump win in Ohio. If the GOP-Dem turnout gap ends up being something like 10% more in favor of the GOP than 2012, and in addition Trump wins independent voters and does better in crossover voters,  Ohio could be a blowout.

But Pennsylvania is right next door and only 2.4% more Democrat than Ohio. If Trump steamrolls Ohio, it seems to me that Pennsylvania would likely be in play. If Trump wins Ohio by 5%, then would we not expect him to win Pennsylvania by 2.6%? Perhaps I am overestimating how linked the two states are. But at least we can say “it bodes well”.

Also, in the primaries, Ohio and Pennsylvania had similar turnout changes for both parties. Ohio Republicans had an increase of 78.8%, Ohio Democrats a decrease of 47.9%. Pennsylvania Republicans had an increase of 87.9%, Pennsylvania Democrats a decrease of 30.7%. And given the relation between changes in primary and changes in general election turnout, we should expect Ohio and Pennsylvania to change similarly.

Ohio and Pennsylvania are ground zero of the proposed “monster vote”. If the “monster vote” exists, it will be most concentrated in these two states and to a lesser extent Michigan. If it doesn’t exist well then nevermind.

Michigan

Current early voting in Michigan shows Republicans leading in ballots returned. In addition, Republicans have returned fewer ballots as a percentage of total ballots they received, meaning that not only are Republicans beating the Democrats in absentee voting, but they have a bigger upside as well:

Posted Image

Michigan did not have early voting in 2012. So we don’t have any baseline to compare this to. However, the fact that Republicans are doing significantly better in early voting than Democrats in Michigan, where Obama won in 2012 by 9.5 points, is certainly surprising, especially given that Democrats usually do better in early voting.

This is certainly a positive sign, but it’s hard to tell what it means without a prior baseline. But given what’s going on just south in Ohio, there’s reason to believe this is a sign that Michigan will be more competitive than in the past. However, at Obama winning by 9.5 points in 2012, even the most optimistic swings in the midwest based on the Ohio data would merely make Michigan competitive.

But frankly, it’s a bit unimportant, because in the scenario in which Michigan is competitive, Trump has almost certainly comfortably won Pennsylvnia, at which point the election is over.

Wisconsin

Early voting in Wisconsin indicates a Clinton win. Wisconsin doesn’t have party registration voting statistics, but they do have county data for 2016. However, they don’t have county data for 2012.

In the 2012 election, the counties that Obama won made up 54.42% of the vote, while the counties Romney won made up 46.88% of the vote. This translated to a total vote count of 52.83% for Obama and 45.89% for Romney.

In 2016 early voting as of October 28 in Wisconsin, the counties Obama won made up 55.37% of the early vote, while the counties Romney won made up 44.6% of the early vote. And to the extent this translates to election day, it looks like Trump will do close to how well Romney did in Wisconsin, which was to lose by 6.94 points.

However, in Ohio, counties that Obama won in 2012 were a bigger chunk of the early vote than they were of the overall vote:

2012 Obama Ohio counties as % of overall vote – 58.09%
2012 Obama Ohio counties as % of early vote by October 26 – 63.83%

2012 Romney counties as % of overall vote – 41.91%
2012 Romney counties as % of early vote by October 26 – 36.17%

And so in Ohio, we saw an 11.48% swing from the early voting result at this time in 2012 to election day in terms of county percentage of votes. And that translated into a real vote total percentage of 47.69% for Romney and 50.67% for Obama.

If Trump gets an 11.48% county vote swing in Wisconsin, that would result in 50.13% for Clinton, 49.84% for Trump, ignoring any potential that Trump would do better with independents and with crossovers than Romney did vs. Obama. But this is extremely speculative.

There was apparently data on race for early voting in Wisconsin in 2012 and 2008, an in that, it shows that the early voters are slightly whiter than they were in 2008 or 2012, which is good news for Trump.

Posted Image

Wisconsin is a bit of an enigma given the lack of prior baselines – Trump could be massively overperforming in early voting in Wisconsin and we would never know it because we don’t know how well Romney or McCain did. However, given how massively Democrat Wisconsin has been, and the dubious early voting results, I expect Hillary to win the state by 4.5 points.

Nevada

Week 1 2012:
R – 110,094 (36.34%)
D – 139,281 (45.97%)
O – 53,610 (17.69%)
Absolute Gap: 29,187
Percent gap: 9.63%

General Election:
Obama – 52.36%
Romney – 45.68%

Week 1 2016:
R – 120,304 (35.69%)
D – 150,484 (44.65%)
O – 66,272 (19.66%)
Absolute Gap: 30,180
Percent gap: 8.96%

General Election Prediction:
Clinton – 50.5%
Trump – 46.5%

Now these numbers are just party registration, it’s possible that Trump is doing much better among democrats and independents than Romney did. Moreover, party registration =/= party ID, meaning that the voters could identity much more as independent. And of course, D doesn’t necessarily mean Clinton, R doesn’t necessarily mean Trump. Certainly the conservative treehouse thinks that Trump and Hillary are neck and neck given assumptions about how many ID independents there are and how many D’s and R’s are crossing over to the other side.

This is all plausible, but I don’t really buy it. If it looks like 2012 and quacks like 2012, it’s probably going to go like 2012.

That said, this is certainly not “eye-popping” as Hillary would have us believe.

North Carolina

Republicans are doing better in the total aggregate of early voting in North Carolina than they did in 2012, and North Carolina went to Romney by 2.04%.

Posted Image

Romney won it in 2012, Trump is doing better than Romney in 2012, NC is probably going Trump. Not much else to say.

Florida

In early voting – absentee plus in-person voting, Obama won by 5 points in 2012, and according to Politico in 2012 was ahead by 3 points On November 1st.

As of October 29 2016, Republicans had 1,450,760 absentee + in-person early votes, while Democrats only had 1,427,314. This is a lead of 23,446 votes, and is a 0.65% lead.

And there doesn’t seem to be any major trend.

On October 26, Republicans had 1,014,206 absentee + in-person early votes, while Democrats only had 1,002,481. The lead then was 11,725 votes, and was a 0.47% lead.

And so Obama was ahead in early voting by anywhere from 3-5 points, and ultimately only won the state by one point. Trump appears to be ahead by around half a point, with no weakening of the trend. If Trump extends the lead on election day as Republicans usually do, and does better than Romney in crossover and independents resulting in the slight early voting turnout advantage being an even bigger edge in votes, Trump can win Florida handily, and my prediction is Trump wins by 2.

Conclusion

What I notice in Democrat early voting analyses is they spend a long time talking about Colorado, Nevada, Arizona, Maine, New Hampshire. If they’re stupid they’ll say Hillary is winning in North Carolina.

They don’t talk about Ohio or what that may mean for Pennsylvania.

Previously we’ve talked about the “monster vote” and non-traditional voters coming out to vote in the primary, and it’s hard to say how it’s going to pan out on election day. My belief had always been that, if a “monster vote” existed, it would manifest more on election day than in early voting due to them being more first-time voters and unfamiliar with early or absentee voting. Republicans generally do better on election day anyway, but I predict Trump will, to some degree, have a bigger gap between his election day results and his early voting results than most Republicans due to this bloc of people who voted in the GOP primaries which hadn’t voted in the prior 2 general elections.

Certainly the polls which showed Hillary up 5-7 points have been shown to be completely ludicrous as real votes actually come in. The early voting thus far paints a picture of a very tight, competitive election, vindicating the LA Times and Rasmussen.

But really these are all just inferences based on party registration and location. It’s possible that Trump is totally blowing Hillary out in states where it seems close based on party registration turnout; I don’t think the reverse is likely, that Hillary is doing better than Obama among registered Democrats or Independents.

And we will see very soon on election day if Trump has a chance, because it’s going to come down to Pennsylvania, ground zero of the monster vote should it exist, and right next to Ohio where Trump appears to be steamrolling. If he loses Pennsylvania he’s probably lost the election. There’s a chance he could win Wisconsin, as Wisconsin is a bit of an enigma, but really I think that of the three – Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania – Pennsylvania is the most likely and if Trump doesn’t win it he won’t win either of the other two.

Trump losing Pennsylvania but winning Wisconsin would be the scenario in which winning Maine CD2 would be important; otherwise Trump would have to pray that the Republican Senate would vote for him, something that is by no means guaranteed.

And since Trump is doing badly in the mountain west, he can’t rely on good results from Colorado or Nevada. Everything else is basically in line, it comes down to Pennsylvania.

Posted Image

#2 Chrome

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Posted 30 October 2016 - 09:28 PM

Quote

Trump losing Pennsylvania but winning Wisconsin would be the scenario in which winning Maine CD2 would be important; otherwise Trump would have to pray that the Republican Senate would vote for him, something that is by no means guaranteed.

It would actually be the House that would decide it. The Senate decides the VP (president of the Senate).


#3 Kike Hernandez

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Posted 30 October 2016 - 09:30 PM

If it goes to the House, will Paul Ryan and the other cucks abstain and let Hillary win?

#4 MS: Database Entry in a Genetics Project

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Posted 30 October 2016 - 09:33 PM

Good find.  I voted early today, and I was torn on weather to vote on election day or do it early, but I figured I'd go early out of convenience, and I also figured since early voting in Texas is reported and it tends to lean Democratic, I'd try to counter that trend with my own little vote.

About Virginia, it flipping is really what has made the job of Republicans so much harder.  Maybe after Trump drains the swamp, the lobbyists, lawyers, and journalists will go back to where they came from and the state might become at least moderately conservative again.

#5 GhostfaceCracka

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Posted 30 October 2016 - 09:37 PM

Northern VA is really a pulsing tumor on the rest of the state. Pretty area, but the last decade has seen it irretrievably colonized by parasites from around the country - it's where all the money and power is now. I really wish we could incorporate it into the District and be done with it. Yes f**kers, and no votes for DC even after that.

#6 Hyperion

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Posted 30 October 2016 - 09:47 PM

View PostFear Anxiety and Depression in the Age of Trump, on 30 October 2016 - 09:30 PM, said:

If it goes to the House, will Paul Ryan and the other cucks abstain and let Hillary win?

I don't see a scenario where Pennsylvania goes Clinton despite Wisconsin going Trump. Wisconsin isn't going Trump, period. If it does, we'll be in landslide territory and thus it won't matter (like a more implausible version of Michigan in the above analysis).

#7 Beijing Hooters False Advertising Lawsuit (ENJ)

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Posted 30 October 2016 - 09:52 PM

Do any maths nerds want to give this one a go?



Posted Image

#8 Jack of All Hates

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Posted 30 October 2016 - 09:52 PM

Why is Wisconsin so full of f****ts?  This is what nukes are for.

#9 PLEASUREMAN

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Posted 30 October 2016 - 10:55 PM

View PostPrime Minister Mark Latham (PBUH) AKA ENJ, on 30 October 2016 - 09:52 PM, said:

Do any maths nerds want to give this one a go?



Posted Image

this is probably how Ta Coates feels trying to read books that don't involve people wearing tights and leaping around city streets

#10 Gabourey Sidibe's Booking Agent

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Posted 30 October 2016 - 11:28 PM

Nice post Hyperion-- thank you!  Great stuff there.

I think we are in such uncharted territory it is simply impossible to calculate.  In a race that is so atypical from any election in the modern era, I just don't put any stock in models attempting to read the teas leaves with any accuracy.  Start with the wrong assumption and you're already off by a magnitude.  We can take comfort (or alarm) in any particular piece of data but I don't think they necessarily link up.  I'd also suggest that this will more likely be a national plebiscite on the future than a traditional state-by-state election for a preferred candidate, as has been the case in the past.  If that is indeed the case, we'll see a re-alignment that will carry entire regions/demographics more than states.  Trump is certainly running a 'national' campaign, not one focused on camping in OH and FLA, as was the case in past races.

Big questions for me:

1.) Has Hillary+Media managed to disqualify Trump sufficiently or not?
2.) Do the Dems have the intensity to produce the turnout required?
3.) Is there evidence of a Monster Vote and will it manifest itself in sufficient numbers to put Trump over the line?

fwiw I'd answer my own questions as follows:

1.) tbd but prolly not.  If so, it wouldn't be 'close' in any sense-- Trump wouldn't continue to be such a MSM target.  This is important because, in lieu of an alternative agenda which she has never really offered up, Hillary doesn't have an argument for her candidacy.  Most voters at this stage either don't believe what they've been told about Trump-- or more likely, they just don't care.
2.) It is hard to see any intensity in Hillary's campaign or following.
3.) Anecdotal but yes.  Cross-over and organic new voters are a big feature of this race thus far-- mostly in Trump's direction.

For me, all this conjures a 300+, 53-47 (2 party) Trump victory.

But that's what you get from an English major who didn't take a math class past basic algebra in high school.

#11 Muh Dik Tracy

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Posted 31 October 2016 - 12:15 AM

I just linked this in the Trump thread but it fits here too:

Quote

Final prediction, then: Trump 48, Clinton 45, Johnson 4, Stein 2, All Others 1. If the cucks for Johnson man up, it will shift 1 point from him to Trump (pretty iffy at this point, though).

Hope I'm wrong and it's a wider victory, but that's what the best poll suggests.

There's no evidence of a landslide, though, so please get that idea out of your head, lest you feel let down that we only won by 4 points. Remember: everyone said we were supposed to go down in flames during the primaries! Trump winning at all is a massive accomplishment for him and us the voters -- don't cry about it just because we're not going to win by 10 points!


#12 Khaganate of Sam Kriss' Heterosexist Hellscape

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Posted 31 October 2016 - 01:31 AM

View PostPeter Blood, on 30 October 2016 - 09:52 PM, said:

Why is Wisconsin so full of f****ts?  This is what nukes are for.

Fuckin' Utah Mormons, too. Kristol linked to a Salt Lake Tribune poll from a couple of days ago showing Trump at 30 and Kristol/Pissdad's gayby-faced gayboy McMullen at 28%. Hope the professed McMullen voters are simply doing the Momo virtue-signaling thing, and will vote Trump on the 8th. Kristol and Pissdad want Hillary, but even the most obtuse Momo has to know that she'd be hostile to them because Utah's a GOPe state TOP to BOTTOM.

#13 (((SINISTER NAZI ECHO)))

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Posted 31 October 2016 - 09:38 AM

I did a lot of reading, werent sure if white pill or black pill? I think the early voting shows Trump having all the momentum. He just feels like the winner. Its my Chris Matthews Tingle In My Leg/Crotch metric. I also looked at Trump and Pence with their rallies compared to Clinton/Bill Clinton/Tim Kaine and had a jolly kek.

Monster Vote is also still social acceptibility bias but the FBI investigations slow that down a bit. Then we also have things like yard signs and Halloween costumes to put into consideration. Trump is winning those.

My thoroughly scientific feeling is Trump by 4...Just Like Brexit

:trump: :farage:

#14 Unrepentant Asa Carter

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Posted 31 October 2016 - 09:42 AM

View PostKhaganate of Numale y Igonvector, on 31 October 2016 - 01:31 AM, said:

View PostPeter Blood, on 30 October 2016 - 09:52 PM, said:

Why is Wisconsin so full of f****ts?  This is what nukes are for.

Fuckin' Utah Mormons, too. Kristol linked to a Salt Lake Tribune poll from a couple of days ago showing Trump at 30 and Kristol/Pissdad's gayby-faced gayboy McMullen at 28%. Hope the professed McMullen voters are simply doing the Momo virtue-signaling thing, and will vote Trump on the 8th. Kristol and Pissdad want Hillary, but even the most obtuse Momo has to know that she'd be hostile to them because Utah's a GOPe state TOP to BOTTOM.

You're talking about people who think feral African black fellas are a valuable addition to their families.

#15 (((SINISTER NAZI ECHO)))

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Posted 31 October 2016 - 09:49 AM

Minnesota and Wisconsin being perma-blue...

:hardship:

I am surrounded by Scandis and cheese niggercucks.

My feeling is Hillary by 6 in both states.

Edit
Gotta drop a whitepill: Doesn't polling and early voting showing Trump winning Nevada? I also don't think Johnson or Stein get anything. Johnson at 4 percent just doesn't seem possible.

Edited by (((SINISTER NAZI ECHO))), 31 October 2016 - 09:52 AM.


#16 ASP: Bengali in Platforms

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Posted 31 October 2016 - 10:09 AM

Tons of White pills, mostly from Ricky's feed:





New Hampshire:


Up in NV, OH, FL and NC. Just need a tiny push in CO and PA:



#17 (((SINISTER NAZI ECHO)))

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Posted 31 October 2016 - 10:19 AM

HIGH ENERGY!

Meme Thing makes my heart sing.

I wanna believe in the MONSTER VOTE LANDSLIDE

#18 dain

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Posted 31 October 2016 - 10:26 AM

If you want an even bigger whitepill, remember that the LAT/USC poll has an even longer delay than most, since participants have like a week to reply. You're seeing their opinions from across the last seven days or so, meaning many submitted it before the FBI stuff came out.

Edited by dain, 31 October 2016 - 10:26 AM.


#19 (((SINISTER NAZI ECHO)))

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Posted 31 October 2016 - 10:35 AM

View Postdain, on 31 October 2016 - 10:26 AM, said:

If you want an even bigger whitepill, remember that the LAT/USC poll has an even longer delay than most, since participants have like a week to reply. You're seeing their opinions from across the last seven days or so, meaning many submitted it before the FBI stuff came out.

This thread is both soothing and energizing. The FBI email Weinergate made me think Trump has it. How can a race this tight have the last october surprise hurt Clinton and Clinton wins? It should really hurt the young turnout for Democrats, right?

I still believe 5 or 10 percent of people polled will Vote Trump but Say Hillary when polled. That social desirability bias could take our close Trump win into the Monster Vote.

#20 Legendary Super Aryan

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Posted 31 October 2016 - 12:59 PM

Sample size of one, but a buddy of mine was asked, man on the street style, who he would vote for. Even though they said it was anonymous he still said Johnson. If enough people are like that, and a hostile media has done everything possible to ensure they are, I would expect to see the 3rd party vote noticeably lower come election day.


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